HOW TO USE PDPC?

• Obtain or develop a tree diagram of the proposed plan. This should be a high-level diagram showing the objective, a second level of main activities, and a third level of broadly defined tasks to accomplish the main activities.

• For each task on the third level, brainstorm what could go wrong.

• Review all the potential problems and eliminate any that are improbable or whose consequences would be insignificant. Show the problems as a fourth level linked to the tasks.

• For each potential problem, brainstorm possible countermeasures. These might be actions or changes to the plan that would prevent the problem, or actions that would remedy it once it occurred. Show the countermeasures as a fifth level, outlined in clouds or jagged lines.

• Decide how practical each countermeasure is. Use criteria such as cost, time required, ease of implementation, and effectiveness. Mark impractical countermeasures with an X and practical ones with an O.

Here are some questions that can be used to identify problems:

• What inputs must be present? Are there any undesirable inputs linked to the good inputs?

• What outputs are you expecting? Might others happen as well?

• What is this supposed to do? Is there something else that it might do instead or in addition?

• Does this depend on actions, conditions, or events? Are these controllable or uncontrollable?

• What cannot be changed or is inflexible?

• Have you allowed any margin for error?

• What assumptions are you making? Could these turn out to be incorrect?

• What has been your experience in similar situations? How is this different?